Arkansas State recently snapped a three-game losing streak with an 87-68 home victory over UAB. Louisville hopes to end a two-game losing skid after successive away losses to Virginia Tech and DePaul.
Join me as I break it down and give a free pick for tonight’s Arkansas State vs. Louisville matchup on December 13.
Arkansas State Road Woes
Arkansas State is 0-5 on the road this season, and part of their problem is their inability to force turnovers. According to ShotQuality, the Red Wolves rank 304th in forcing turnovers and score just 11.3 points per game (ppg) from turnovers, while opponents average 18.3 (ppg) from Arkansas State miscues.
The Red Wolves play a fast tempo and rely on the three-ball for 37% of their scoring production. ShotQuality states Arkansas State rarely posts up on the block, and when they do shoot from inside the arc, they make just 47% with a sub-par 46.2% effective field goal percentage.
Louisville Two-Game Losing Streak
Louisville has dropped two road games, but they are young, big, and 4-1. According to ShotQuality, the Cardinals are a top 20 shooting team from the charity stripe with the 82nd-best offensive rebound percentage in the college game.
The Cardinals have a 45% post-up rate yet make 47% from inside the arc. Louisville doesn’t shoot many triples but has a negative turnover margin and does allow 16.4 ppg from turnovers. The Cardinals are terrible at defending against the triple, and ShotQuality states Louisville plays too many ISO plays.
Arkansas State vs Louisville Best Bet
Louisville could use a win after a rough pair of away outings. The Cardinals have had some strange results at home, failed to cover the spread in their last two home games, and are 1-4-0 ATS wearing the home jersey.
Arkansas State has a 0-5 away record and is 2-3-0 ATS. The Red Wolves shooters haven’t met a triple they didn’t like and rely on the long-range jumper for 38.6% of their 74.6 points per game. Arkansas State usually shoots +11.2 more triples per game than their opponents, but knocking down triples on the road is easier said than done.
Louisville doesn’t just have a home-court edge, but they usually snare +2.8 more offensive caroms than their opponents. Tonight, that edge could reach as high as +4 or better because they have a distinct size advantage and one of the highest offensive rebounding rates in the country.
Finally, tonight’s ballgame should be a close one. FanDuel KY has Louisville -3.5 (-115), the best number on the board. Close games usually benefit the teams that get to the line and make their free-throw attempts, and the Cardinals have one of the highest free-throw rates nationally.
My best bet: Louisville -3.5 (-115) at FanDuel
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